Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 34.845526 37.795080 41.020951 44.837829 49.266415 54.287958 60.478504
2025-03-30 30.713433 34.479239 38.844686 44.361793 51.273345 59.827455 71.527633
2025-04-06 28.040765 32.185927 37.178911 43.781003 52.520694 64.081449 81.288742
2025-04-13 25.581161 29.801798 35.019400 42.139236 51.946093 65.582278 87.283594
2025-04-20 24.868894 29.469346 35.330404 43.633636 55.641470 73.436074 104.430799
2025-04-27 24.118233 28.990446 35.358373 44.678526 58.759796 80.910487 123.130211
2025-05-04 23.549414 28.682739 35.554147 45.929659 62.296128 89.669495 147.261895
2025-05-11 22.620714 27.813411 34.885419 45.812088 63.619533 94.872193 166.288244
2025-05-18 21.819739 27.060490 34.311886 45.758103 65.000543 100.408683 188.589643
2025-05-25 20.840295 26.000126 33.218664 44.786203 64.670806 102.561339 203.453693
2025-06-01 19.808351 24.814476 31.871697 43.300715 63.259954 102.265896 211.494140
2025-06-08 18.895900 23.758681 30.661019 41.946412 61.941292 101.944747 219.520740
2025-06-15 18.588777 23.604341 30.856538 43.027177 65.473930 113.510174 277.285766
2025-06-22 17.918797 22.892549 30.167441 42.578496 66.068898 118.656122 318.498387
2025-06-29 17.284966 22.200467 29.463024 42.034954 66.391710 123.248291 364.077991
2025-07-06 16.473523 21.210368 28.241811 40.496942 64.503628 121.687598 377.719222
2025-07-13 16.372931 21.271803 28.670302 41.896996 68.915436 138.583897 535.326978
2025-07-20 16.184419 21.188347 28.857747 42.874762 72.598242 155.169315 770.628499
2025-07-27 16.041725 21.165188 29.136979 44.044288 76.939715 176.297125 1256.125162
2025-08-03 15.665201 20.762637 28.764644 43.934442 78.231795 187.508806 1798.304588
2025-08-10 15.323062 20.399418 28.437868 43.884000 79.668141 200.208673 2862.132848
2025-08-17 14.849600 19.812637 27.705695 42.975468 78.791390 202.996208 3780.020839
2025-08-24 14.316526 19.116106 26.760780 41.585262 76.509120 198.887598 4125.507723